- Florey researchers have developed a statistical tool that shows closer accuracy than previous similar tools able to predict mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer’s disease symptoms.
- If clinically validated, it could also provide patients with more time to make decisions about their care, before the disease progresses.
Improving prediction tools for mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer’s disease
Florey researchers have developed and validated a new statistical tool – the Florey Dementia Index (FDI) – to better predict the age of onset of mild cognitive impairment and dementia symptoms than other similar tools.
The FDI model is believed to be the first to accurately predict the onset of mild cognitive impairment and dementia using only the patient’s age and their score in the Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR), a global measure of cognition and function obtained by interviewing both patient and carer.
As outlined in a study published in JAMA Network Open, the FDI was developed using data from 3,783 participants in 3 studies: the Australian Imaging Biomarkers and Lifestyle (AIBL) study; the US-based Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI); and the Anti-Amyloid Treatment in Asymptomatic Alzheimer’s (A4) study.
The paper’s corresponding author Dr Nicholas (Yijun) Pan said: “There are currently no tools available in clinics to predict the age a patient will experience mild cognitive decline or Alzheimer’s disease symptoms. We need affordable non-invasive ways to accurately predict age of disease onset, to help improve patient care and treatment, and to enable patients to make plans while they are capable of doing so.”
Dr Pan said the data used to develop the FDI included those of healthy individuals.
“We used neuropsychological data from these asymptomatic healthy participants to predict the age at which they would develop symptoms. We then verified our prediction against the actual age of their clinical diagnoses.
Our test now needs to be prospectively validated but could potentially be used as a screening tool for people aged over 60 who have no symptoms of mild cognitive impairment or Alzheimer’s disease, especially for those at risk.
First author, Chenyin Chu, created the FDI as part of his Master’s thesis and said the model predicted mild cognitive impairment with a prediction error of about 18 months, and predicted dementia with an error of about 8 months.
“To our knowledge, the FDI model is the first to accurately predict the onset of mild cognitive impairment using only a single neuropsychological test and age,” Chenyin Chu said.
